Active residential inventory sits at 14,248 homes across the Austin MLS. That is a meaningful 14.6 percent increase compared to December of last year, and although it remains below the peak of 18,146 reached in June, it firmly places Austin housing in an elevated supply environment. The most telling number inside that inventory figure is that 57.6 percent of all active listings have already taken at least one price reduction. When more than half of listed properties must adjust pricing to attract attention, it shows two things. First, the original pricing strategy for many sellers did not match the current demand environment. Second, buyers now expect price movement, and they are not writing as quickly as they once did. That shift is a major theme throughout today’s austin market update.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for December 11 2025.
New listings have totaled 48,756 year to date, which represents a 2.5 percent increase from last year and sits almost 20 percent above the long term average. This means more homeowners are choosing to list despite the softer demand conditions. At the same time, cumulative pending contracts for the year are down 5.0 percent and sit at 41,970. Even though pending volume is slightly above the historical average, the year over year comparison shows buyers are moving more cautiously. When supply rises more quickly than contract activity, the impact flows directly into Months of Inventory, Days on Market, and overall negotiation leverage. Pending listings today sit at 3,711, roughly 2 percent lower than this time last year, reinforcing the slow demand trend.
The Activity Index gives another clear view into the market’s slowdown. Today’s Activity Index sits at 20.7 percent, compared to 23.3 percent at this time last year. That is an 11.5 percent decline, and more importantly, it places the market inside the softening to contraction range. New construction is operating at a much stronger Activity Index of 27.50 percent, while resale inventory sits at only 17.47 percent. Builders are attracting contracts with aggressive pricing and incentives, while resale sellers face a more difficult path to securing offers. This split between new construction and resale is one of the most defining elements of the current austin real estate landscape.
The New Listing to Pending Ratio also reinforces buyer hesitation. Today’s monthly ratio is 0.66, meaning that for every 100 new listings, only 66 are going under contract. The long term average is 0.82, and the year to date ratio of 0.73 confirms a full year of oversupply relative to absorption. This gap between new listings and pending contracts has created a cumulative difference of 6,786 more listings than contracts this year. When this type of imbalance persists, inventory climbs faster than sales can keep up, and the market leans further toward buyers.
Months of Inventory moved up to 5.07 today, which represents a 16 percent increase from the 4.37 level at this time last year. This is one of the most important metrics for understanding the austin housing forecast. When inventory sits above five months, buyers gain negotiation power and price growth slows or reverses. The resale only breakdown shows that a large number of cities and ZIP codes are now operating in buyer advantage or buyer control territory. That means many areas of Austin are seeing slower absorption, longer marketing times, and increased seller concessions. Austin as a whole sits 15 percent higher than last year in overall Months of Inventory and 7 percent higher year to date. These are the numbers that naturally place downward pressure on prices and increase the probability of continued softening into the first quarter of 2026.
Sales volume also reflects the slower pace. Austin recorded 2,539 closed sales this month. Year to date, 30,269 homes have sold, a decline of 3.6 percent from last year. While this total is still 7.7 percent above the long term average, the year over year drop shows contraction in buyer activity. After adjusting for population, cumulative sales per 100 thousand residents are down 5.9 percent and sit more than 20 percent below historical norms. In other words, Austin is selling fewer homes relative to its size than at almost any point in the last two decades. This is one of the clearest markers of a slow demand cycle.
Price trends remain consistent with the broader correction that began after the May 2022 peak. The average sold price for December sits at 610,988 dollars. That is down roughly 71 thousand, or 10.4 percent, from the peak average price of 681,939 dollars. Median price remains the more important number for understanding affordability and real buyer behavior. Today’s median sold price is 450,000 dollars, which is a 100 thousand dollar, or 18.18 percent, decline from the May 2022 median of 550,000 dollars. Tracking median price against the level from 36 months ago shows the market is flat, sitting exactly at 0.00 percent. After adjusting for the long term appreciation rate of 4.981 percent, it would take roughly 53 months, or until April 2030, for Austin to return to the prior peak median of 551,379 dollars. This is a long recovery timeline and reinforces that the current correction is not a short term event.
The distribution of appreciation across price segments also reveals important behavior. The bottom 25 percent of the market is still seeing year over year declines of 1.29 percent in selling price and 2.90 percent in price per square foot. The top 25 percent, however, is slightly positive year over year, showing a gain of 1.29 percent in price and a modest 0.20 percent increase in price per square foot. This means higher end buyers continue to transact, while the entry level and mid market segments remain the most sensitive to affordability and financing pressure.
Demand absorption remains weak. The sold to active ratio sits at 15.54 percent, compared to the historical average of 31.64 percent. That is less than half of what a balanced market typically produces. This ratio is one of the clearest signals of a slow moving market because it measures how much inventory is actually converting into sales. When only 15 percent of active inventory is selling in a given period, inventory builds, days on market lengthen, and prices struggle to gain footing.
The Market Flow Score for today is 5.48, compared to a historical average of 6.58. This index blends multiple turnover metrics into a single view of market momentum. A lower score indicates slower movement, weaker buyer engagement, and reduced efficiency across the housing cycle. Austin is simply not cycling inventory at a rate that supports price growth. Instead, it supports controlled price declines and a steady correction that continues to work through elevated supply.
Taken together, today’s austin real estate forecast continues to lean toward a buyer controlled environment. Elevated inventory, slow absorption, lower sales per population, a soft Activity Index, and widespread price reductions all point to a market that still has room to settle. Sellers must be strategic with pricing, presentation, and concessions. Buyers will continue to find opportunities, especially in segments where inventory has climbed the fastest. Investors should continue to model returns based on conservative appreciation assumptions and realistic rent expectations. Agents operating in this environment will benefit from strong data fluency, pricing accuracy, and helping clients understand the broader cycle rather than a single month of movement.
